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Conservation Science and Practice

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Conservation Science and Practice's content profile, based on 13 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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How farming practices and livestock management affect Human-Wildlife Conflict intensity in Southern Ecuador: The case of the Spectacled Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) and feral dogs

Lopes, F.; Penaherrera-Aguirre, M.; Cisneros, R.

2026-03-30 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.29.715147 medRxiv
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BackgroundHuman-Wildlife Conflict is emerging as one of the most critical conservation and socio-economic challenges in the Ecuadorian Andes, where both rural livelihoods and native fauna are under increasing pressure. Small-scale livestock producers in the region depend almost entirely on a limited number of cattle, meaning that the loss of even a single animal can lead to severe economic hardship. In response, antagonistic actions against wildlife are frequent, further threatening vulnerable species. At the same time, the recent proliferation of feral dogs adds a new dimension to conflict, posing risks to both livestock and native fauna. Despite the growing severity of this conflict, little is known of its drivers, spatial patterns, and socio-ecological consequences. This study seeks to fill that gap by generating insights to inform targeted conservation strategies for community-based mitigation of conflict with spectacled bears and feral dogs. MethodsTo assess the drivers and dynamics of HWC in southern Ecuador, we conducted structured interviews with livestock owners, quantifying the frequency and intensity of conflicts across multiple species and evaluating whether farm composition and management practices predict conflict patterns. ResultsOur results reveal that large carnivores cause significantly higher economic losses than smaller predators; furthermore, feral dogs have emerged as the primary source of financial damage over the past five years. Farms with a greater proportion of forest edge were associated with a higher probability of severe conflict, particularly with large carnivores. ConclusionsThese findings underscore the urgent need for proactive strategies to promote coexistence. Identifying predictive variables of conflict risk is crucial for vulnerability assessments and the design of effective mitigation policies. Controlling feral dog populations is likely to be a critical step in safeguarding both rural human livelihoods and native biodiversity in the Andean landscape.

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The effect of outdoor recreation on mammal habitat use and diversity revealed by COVID-19 closures

Dimitriou, A.; Benson-Amram, S.; Gaynor, K.; Burton, C.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.02.715670 medRxiv
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The rising demand for outdoor recreation worldwide may be undermining the conservation objectives of protected areas (PAs). We leveraged a natural experiment, in which two adjacent PAs were closed to the public for different durations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using detections from 39 camera traps in Joffre Lakes and Garibaldi Parks, Canada, from 2020-2022, we examined how recreation influenced mammal habitat use and diversity. Bayesian regression showed weak evidence that, when recreation was higher, detections declined for black bear, mule deer, and marten, while detections of bobcat and hoary marmot shifted closer to trails. Accumulation curves revealed that species richness and diversity were higher in the closed vs. open PA in 2020 (mean differences of -5.04 for richness and -0.33 for Shannon diversity). However, diversity did not decline consistently despite increases in recreation in 2021 and 2022. Notably, several rare species were only detected in the lower-recreation PA, suggesting they may be filtered out of the higher-recreation PA. This emphasizes the need for long-term monitoring to detect delayed and cumulative effects of recreation on mammal communities. Given growing global pressures on biodiversity, we urge PA managers to prioritize adaptive management to assess and balance outdoor recreation with conservation goals.

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The role and origins of human attitudes in Human-Wildlife Conflict responses: Insights from Spectacled Bears (Tremarctos ornatus) and other wild carnivores in Southern Ecuador

Lopes, F.; Penaherrera-Aguirre, M.; Cisneros, R.

2026-03-30 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.29.715142 medRxiv
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BackgroundHuman-wildlife conflict, which motivates retaliatory killings, is a major driver of species decline globally. Addressing an open question in human-wildlife conflict, we test whether evolutionary-rooted human attitudes, independent of economic losses, better predict retaliatory responses. MethodsWe examined human attitudes toward spectacled bears (Tremarctos ornatus) and other wild carnivores in a wildlife conflict-zone in southern Ecuador by conducting interviews in rural communities. We measured both established variables - such as education levels, age, and gender - and novel psychometric variables to identify predictors of human-wildlife conflict responses. ResultsPerceptions of animals emerged as the strongest predictor of conflict responses. Communities exhibiting high levels of vengefulness, particularly within an animal-directed Culture of Honor, where individuals, especially men, are expected to respond strongly or violently to perceived threats, were more likely to support lethal interventions. Conversely, individuals with strong environmental education backgrounds demonstrated more positive perceptions of wildlife, highlighting educations potential role in conflict mitigation. ConclusionEvolutionary-derived attitudes, rather than economic factors, primarily drive human responses to wildlife conflict. Effective strategies to reduce violence against wildlife should incorporate human perceptions and culturally rooted values to address the underlying social and psychological drivers of conflict.

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Sharks, Rays, & MPAs: Evaluating protected area coverage in national waters across species ranges

Arnold, A. E.; Matsushiba, J. H.; Dulvy, N. K.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.18.712493 medRxiv
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Global conservation agreements emphasize protected area coverage targets, such as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Frameworks 30x30 target, yet their effectiveness in safeguarding biodiversity remains uncertain. We measure the intersection between marine protected area (MPAs) coverage and the distribution of sharks and rays. Using global range maps and MPA boundaries within national Exclusive Economic Zones, we calculate the percent of species ranges within MPAs, focusing on no-take areas. We reveal significant shortfalls in species-level protection. Within national waters, no Critically Endangered species has more than 5% of its range in no-take MPAs, and 79% of threatened species have less than 1%. We also find the WDPA contains major gaps in take-status reporting, only one third of countries (34%) report take-status of any MPAs to the WDPA, further limiting estimates of meaningful protection. These results highlight the implementation gap between global coverage targets and biodiversity outcomes, reinforcing the need for species-focused protection.

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Ungulate conservation: Lessons from experimental white-lipped peccary management in agricultural-natural landscape mosaics of the Brazilian Cerrado

Painkow Neto, E.; Silvius, K. M.; Barquero, G.; Neves, D. C.; Fragoso, J. M. V.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.03.716323 medRxiv
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Animal population control is widely used to mitigate conflicts between wildlife and agriculture worldwide. Structured, monitored removals are rare in South America, however, and their consequences for wildlife populations as well as their effectiveness in reducing crop damage are little understood. Using eight years of data from an experimental white-lipped peccary management program in an agricultural mosaic in the Brazilian Cerrado biome, we assess how structured, non-lethal removals affect both peccary demography and second-crop corn damage. Leslie removal models based on 6,619 captured individuals indicated that cumulative removals to approximately 85% of the initial population strongly reduced peccary abundance, with limited demographic compensation despite fluctuations in reproductive output. Corn crop damage, quantified with satellite imagery, declined over time and was correlated with peccary population size. Interannual variation in population growth and juvenile recruitment was poorly explained by climate, fire, or landscape composition. Source-sink dynamics likely play a role in maintaining healthy populations at the regional scale. Together, these results demonstrate that sustained and monitored ungulate removals can reliably reduce population size and agricultural damage, supporting coexistence between wildlife and food crop production in human-dominated tropical landscapes.

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How Five Decades Of Land-Cover Change Reshaped Suitable Habitat For Puerto Rican Tree Species

Moro, L.; Milesi, P.; Helmer, E.; Uriarte, M.; Muscarella, R.

2026-03-24 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.21.710527 medRxiv
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AimHuman land-use has dramatically altered the amount, quality, and connectivity of habitat for species worldwide. Understanding how these changes affect individual species is essential for predicting the overall consequences of land-use change for biodiversity. LocationThe Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. Forest cover on the island increased from about 18 to 45% from the late 1940s to the early 2000s. MethodsUsing data on geographic distributions and functional traits for 454 tree species, we evaluated how gain of potential habitat was related to species-specific climatic associations and life-history strategies. We estimated species-specific potential habitat (climatically suitable and forested) with species distribution models and data on forest cover. We characterized each species niche breadth (the range of environmental conditions it occupies) and niche position (the environmental conditions it prefers) to compare with the conditions in reforested areas. ResultsSpecies with relatively more potential habitat in 1951 (climatically suitable and forested) also had relatively larger gains in potential habitat from 1951 to 2000. Species that tend to occupy conditions different from those common in reforested areas (i.e., more marginal habitats) gained relatively less potential habitat and species with broad environmental niches gained more potential habitat. Additionally, species with relatively acquisitive functional traits gained more suitable habitat than those with relatively conservative traits. Main conclusionsOur results show that Puerto Ricos reforestation preferentially increased habitat for species that (1) already had suitable habitat in the landscape, (2) tolerate a wide range of climatic conditions, and (3) exhibit fast, acquisitive functional strategies. These findings illustrate how land-use change in heterogeneous tropical landscapes can generate non-uniform habitat gains across species, potentially favoring generalist over specialist species and reshaping community composition.

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Bumble Bee Abundance and Diversity Increase with Intensity of Tallgrass Prairie Restoration Intervention

Kochanski, J. M.; McFarlane, S. L.; Damschen, E. I.; Gratton, C.

2026-03-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.24.713996 medRxiv
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IntroductionHuman land-use intensification and the resulting habitat loss are primary drivers of insect pollinator declines. Habitat restoration offers a promising approach to counteract these declines, yet landscape-level evaluations of bee responses to restoration and management remain limited. We conducted a two-year, landscape-scale study in Wisconsin, USA, to assess how different intensities of tallgrass prairie restoration and management affect bumble bees (Bombus spp.). ObjectivesThis study aimed to determine whether (1) bumble bee abundance and diversity increase with assisted restoration, and (2) outcomes differ between low-(seeded only) and moderate-intensity (seeded and managed with prescribed fire) interventions. MethodsUsing catch-and-release surveys, we measured bumble bee abundance and diversity at 32 sites representing a gradient in restoration intervention: no intervention (unassisted recovery), low intervention, and moderate intervention. ResultsBumble bee abundance and diversity were higher at assisted restoration sites (low and moderate intervention) than at unassisted sites. Although both tended to be greater at moderate than low intervention intensities, these differences were not statistically significant. Bumble bee community composition also differed across intervention intensity, driven by shifts in dominant species (e.g., B. impatiens and B. griseocollis). Rarer taxa, including endangered and vulnerable species, occurred only at assisted restoration sites, with the largest populations at moderate intervention sites. Across all sites, bumble bee responses were strongly and positively associated with floral abundance, but not with semi-natural habitat in the surrounding landscape. ConclusionOur findings demonstrate that assisted grassland restoration can effectively increase bumble bee abundance and diversity, supporting its value as a conservation practice for pollinators. Implications for Practice: (1) Grassland restorations targeting plant communities can successfully support nontarget pollinators across a range of management intensities and landscape contexts. Adding seeds of pollinator-preferred plants could improve restorations with low floral abundance and diversity. (2) Management of existing restorations is important to maintain abundant floral resources and diverse pollinator communities. Because sites varied widely in prescribed fire use, our findings likely represent a conservative estimate of its benefits, and higher intervention intensity (e.g., repeated seeding, regular fire, mechanical or chemical shrub and invasive plants control) may further enhance outcomes for bumble bees.

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Mapping small-scale ephemeral surface water to inform transfrontier conservation planning in southern Africa

Swift, M. E.; Songhurst, A.; McCullogh, G.; Beytell, P.; Naidoo, R.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.03.715600 medRxiv
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Reliable freshwater access drives terrestrial wildlife movements and habitat use globally. The small, rain-fed seasonal pools critical for dryland wildlife persistence are vulnerable to rising temperatures and unstable precipitation regimes projected under climate change. In southern Africa, which is expected to warm rapidly by 2100, the drying and disappearance of surface water may cause a breakdown in seasonal migrations of large, area-sensitive, and water-dependent wildlife species. Furthermore, the disappearance of ephemeral water may concentrate wildlife around remaining surface water, increasing resource competition and human-wildlife conflict. An accurate understanding of the dynamics and drivers of seasonal surface water will therefore be critical to wildlife and human health as climate change intensifies. Here, we present a framework and empirical analysis of fine-scale surface water mapping in the 520,000km2 Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA), the worlds largest terrestrial conservation area. From 2019-2025, we implemented Otsu thresholding on median Automated Water Extraction Index imagery from 10m Sentinel-2 MSI, leveraging high wet season contrast between vegetation and water as a dry season positive mask. We created >35 quasi-monthly KAZA-wide Ephemeral Surface Water (ESW) rasters (mean classification accuracy 87%, compared to 50% accuracy for existing water products), and found wet season precipitation drivers of non-riparian water fill levels did not extend into the dry season. Then, using GPS data from 27 African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana), which typically visit water every 48 hours, we compared elephant water visitation rates based on ESW to existing 30m Global Surface Water (GSW) maps. Models using ESW estimated 99% of elephant data came within a 48-hour window, compared to 42% for GSW, suggesting that ESW is a better proxy for actual wildlife water use in animal movement modeling. As aridification threatens to diminish surface water resources, we must model the drivers of wildlife movements at the scale of wildlife needs. With ESW, we provide fine scale accessible surface water data and a straightforward coding architecture for applications beyond KAZA.

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Reassessing display behavior from Bels et al. (2025) given the complexity of anthropogenic hybridization and intraspecific diversity in Iguana iguana

van den Burg, M. P.; Thibaudier, J.

2026-03-23 zoology 10.64898/2026.03.19.713079 medRxiv
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Understanding behavioral differences between non-native and closely related endangered species could be important to aid conservation management. In volume 169 of Zoology, Bels et al. (2025) reported on their comparison of display-action-patterns (DAP) between native Iguana delicatissima and non-native iguanas present on islands of the Guadeloupe Archipelago in the Caribbean Lesser Antilles. Here, we address conceptual and methodological concerns about their work and reanalyze their data given our proposed corrections, primarily a literature-informed adjustment of their "species" category. We additionally utilize online videos from South American mainland I. iguana populations, from where the non-native iguanas in the Guadeloupe Archipelago originate, to better understand the different DAPs between native and non-native iguanas in the Guadeloupe Archipelago. Significant differences in DAP characteristics among "species" categories (native I. delicatissima, non-native iguanas, and hybrids) show that Bels et al. (2025) oversimplified their data analyses by merging all non-native populations into one group. This result indicates the presence of behavioral variation among subpopulations within widely hybridizing iguanid populations, which has been poorly studied. Additionally, videos from mainland populations across two major mitochondrial clades of Iguana iguana show that non-native iguanas on Guadeloupe retained DAP characteristics of those populations from which they originate. We discuss these findings in light of the proposed hypotheses put forward by Bels et al. (2025), of which two can be excluded. Overall, our reanalysis shows that studies focusing on characteristics within settings of complex hybridization in diverse species should acknowledge this complexity.

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The City Nature Challenge increases urban biodiversity knowledge and public engagement with blue spaces

Morgan, M. C.; Hopkins, C. R.; Forster, R.; Gomez, A.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.19.712856 medRxiv
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Global biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate due to rapid environmental change and increasing human pressures. Ongoing urban expansion fragments natural systems, while urban design increasingly seeks to mitigate these impacts through the integration of blue-green infrastructure. Effective biodiversity monitoring is therefore essential to evaluate ecological conditions within these novel socio-ecological systems. Although urban biodiversity monitoring is challenged by its high landscape heterogeneity, dense human populations provide opportunities for large-scale data collection through public participation in citizen science. Using data from 25 City Nature Challenge (CNC) projects across the United Kingdom (2020-2025), we assessed the effects of the four-day bioblitz on species inventories, participation in biological recording, and spatial patterns of recording effort. CNC events doubled public participation in iNaturalist recording relative to baseline activity, leading to the documentation of numerous previously unrecorded species through increased observer effort and broader use of urban blue-green spaces. These results show that CNC events enhance urban biodiversity datasets by increasing the number of observers and reducing spatial and observer biases, providing a cost-effective tool for enriching urban biodiversity data. In addition to generating ecological data, CNC events could have public health benefits through increased exposure to urban blue-green spaces.

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Sharing the trail: recreation effects on bear behaviour in a Canadian Rocky Mountain Park

Dimitriou, A.; Gaynor, K. M.; Benson-Amram, S.; Percy, M.; Burton, C.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.02.714576 medRxiv
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Humans are profoundly reshaping the natural world. These changes are giving rise to complex and mutually risky dynamics between people and large carnivores. In protected areas across North America, bears (Ursus sp.) face rapidly rising recreation pressures that can alter their use of the landscape, either displacing them from high-quality habitats or drawing them into human-wildlife conflicts through habituation or attraction to anthropogenic resources. However, disentangling responses to recreation from other drivers can be difficult because human activity covaries with environmental and seasonal processes that also shape bear activity. We leveraged the partial closure of the popular Berg Lake Trail in Mount Robson Park, British Columbia, Canada, to investigate whether black (Ursus americanus) and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) showed fear, attraction or neutral behavioural responses to varying recreation levels across multiple spatiotemporal scales. To understand both anticipatory responses to predictable patterns of human activity, and reactive responses to hiker events, we used detections from 43 camera traps over two years (July 2023-June 2025). We compared weekly habitat use, daily activity patterns, and direct responses to hikers (using Avoidance-Attraction Ratios; AARs) among camera sites and between open and closed sections of the trail. Our results revealed that both bear species exhibited patterns consistent with fear responses, while some black bear behaviours were also consistent with attraction responses. Both kinds of responses reflect anticipatory strategies rather than reactionary behaviours (i.e., no AAR effect). Neither species avoided recreation spatially at the weekly scale: black bears were detected more at site-weeks with greater recreation intensity, while grizzly bears were consistently detected more at sites closer to hiking trails. However, both species used daily temporal partitioning to avoid direct encounters with humans. These findings demonstrate scope for human-bear coexistence when recreation levels are managed to be moderate and predictable, and bears have sufficient space to segregate from humans during peak times. Thus, successful coexistence will hinge on co-adaptation by both bears and people. Understanding how recreation influences bear behaviour, and the spatiotemporal scale at which that occurs, is critical for guiding effective adaptive management aimed at fostering human-bear coexistence in high-traffic protected areas.

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Tradeoffs in planning marine protected areas for kelp forest resilience: protecting climate refugia is not always the best solution

Hopf, J. K.; Giraldo-Ospina, A.; Caselle, J.; Kroeker, K.; Carr, M.; Hastings, A.; White, J. W.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.01.715997 medRxiv
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Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly promoted as climate mitigation tools, yet guidance on their placement to maximize resilience against climate stressors like marine heatwaves remains limited. Here, we develop MPA placement guidelines that explicitly consider a mechanistic pathway through which MPAs could enhance kelp forest resilience to heatwaves: protecting fishery-targeted urchin predators to prevent kelp overgrazing. Using a spatially explicit, tri-trophic model of California kelp forests, we evaluate alternative MPA configurations across a hypothetical coastline where half the habitat experiences an increased probability of experiencing heatwaves. We found that effective MPA placement depends on whether MPAs are being newly established or reconfigured within an existing network, and that among-patch connectivity and spillover played vital roles in the relative effectiveness of different MPA configurations. Changes in resilience occurred primarily at the patch scale, with trade-offs between increased within-MPA resilience and decreased resilience in some fished areas, resulting in minimal coastwide population effects. For example, for new MPAs, large single MPAs within heatwave-prone areas maximized within-MPA resilience gains, while multiple small MPAs in heatwave refugia best supported whole-coast resilience. When reconfiguring established networks, expanding existing MPAs in refugia areas was most effective. We also demonstrate the importance of considering MPA recovery timescales: for example, relocating old MPAs to heatwave refugia yielded minimal short-term benefits due to the loss of rebuilt, previously fished, predator biomass. Our findings demonstrate that climate-adaptive marine planning should explicitly consider the spatiotemporal implications of trophic cascades, connectivity, and transient population dynamics to support ecosystem resilience.

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Ghostbusting the national bird checklist: integrative evidence shows that Pionus fuscus does not occur in Colombia

Carrillo-Restrepo, J. C.; Velasquez-Tibata, J.

2026-03-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.23.713821 medRxiv
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Natural history collections underpin our understanding of species distributions, yet some historical records remain embedded in modern avifaunal checklists despite limited documentation and no independent verification. One such case concerns the Dusky Parrot Pionus fuscus in Colombia: although reported from specimens collected by Melbourne A. Carriker Jr. in 1942 in the Serrania de Perija, the species has not been observed in the country for nearly eight decades yet continues to be included in national checklists and conservation assessments. We reassessed the validity of this record by applying a multi-evidence framework integrating historic archival reconstruction, specimen-based morphological comparisons, climatic niche analyses, biogeographic limit assessment and contemporary survey-effort data. Historical documentation and morphological evidence based on high-resolution specimen images and associated curatorial records demonstrate that the Carriker specimens correspond to Pionus chalcopterus, not P. fuscus. Climatic niche analyses reveal minimal environmental overlap between P. chalcopterus and P. fuscus, and place the Perija locality within the climatic niche of P. chalcopterus, while regional biogeography and extensive modern birdwatching coverage provide no support for the occurrence of P. fuscus in Perija. Together, these concordant lines of evidence demonstrate that P. fuscus does not occur in Colombia. Our findings support its removal from national bird lists and conservation assessments and highlight how integrated, multi-evidence reassessments of historical records strengthen ornithological baselines, improve biogeographic inference and ensure that conservation priorities rest on verifiable evidence.

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Into new depths: climate-driven habitat expansion of the endangered skate Dipturus chilensis (Chondrichthyes, Rajiformes)

Villafana, J.; Almendras, D.; Gonzalez-Aragon, D.; Concha, F.; Guzman-Castellanos, A.; Contreras, I.; Buldrini, K.; Oyanadel-Urbina, P.; Sandoval, C.; Miranda, B.; Mazo, G.; Cardenas, F.; Valdivia, M.; Pequeno, G.; Lara, C.; Rivadeneira, M.

2026-03-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.26.714520 medRxiv
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The yellownose skate (Dipturus chilensis) is an endangered skate with a narrow distribution in the southeastern Pacific, facing intense fishing pressure and potential climate threats. Using a species distribution model, we projected the current and future distribution of D. chilensis under contrasting climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for mid-century (2050) and end-of-century (2100). Our models, which demonstrated robust predictive performance significantly better than random expectations, identified maximum temperature and minimum oxygen as the primary environmental drivers of habitat suitability. Projections revealed a consistent poleward range shift towards the Channels and Fjords of Southern Chile ecoregion across all scenarios. While localized habitat loss was projected in Central Chile and Araucanian ecoregions, particularly under high emissions (SSP5-8.5), these losses were outweighed by southern expansions, leading to a net increase in total suitable habitat by 2100. These findings underscore the critical need for climate-adaptive management strategies, including the protection of emerging southern refugia and dynamic fisheries regulations, to ensure the long-term persistence of D. chilensis.

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Quantifying Exposure of Pacific Salmon and Steelhead to Climate Change in the Fraser River basin

Peacock, S. J.; Cheung, W. W. L.; Connors, B. M.; Crozier, L. G.; Grant, S.; Hertz, E.; Hunt, B. P. V.; Iacarella, J.; Lagasse, C. R.; Moore, R. D.; Moore, J. W.; Nicolas-Robinne, F.; Porter, M.; Schnorbus, M.; Wilson, S. M.; Connors, K.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.18.712684 medRxiv
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Climate change can affect salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) throughout their anadromous life cycles, yet there have been no assessments of which Canadian populations face the greatest exposure. We developed a framework to quantify relative climate change exposure of salmon and steelhead populations based on the spatial and temporal distribution of different life stages. Exposure was calculated from climate model projections for freshwater and marine climate variables considering unique impact thresholds for each population and life stage. We applied this framework to 60 Conservation Units of Pacific salmon and steelhead in the Fraser River basin, British Columbia. Lake-type sockeye had the highest exposure, driven by elevated stream temperatures during adult freshwater migration and spawning stages and relatively low thermal tolerance of marine stages. Chinook salmon were the next most exposed, while coho, pink, and chum salmon had relatively low exposure. Uniquely, steelhead exposure was driven by high stream temperatures during incubation. Our framework is broadly applicable, and our findings provide critical input for climate change vulnerability assessments and forward-looking resilience planning for Pacific salmon.

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Increasing spatial approximation complexity can degrade prediction quality in distribution models

Ward, E. J.; Anderson, S. C.

2026-03-19 ecology 10.1101/2025.11.14.688354 medRxiv
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Spatial and spatiotemporal models are increasingly critical for understanding species distributions, tracking population change, and informing conservation decisions. As biological processes are influenced by increasing external pressures, including human disturbance or environmental change, accurate model predictions become essential for adaptive management. However, the reliability of spatial predictions depends on often-overlooked modelling choices, including the spatial resolution used to approximate underlying processes. Using long term monitoring data from a large-scale groundfish survey in the California Current ecosystem, we investigated how spatial model complexity affects the quality of ecological predictions and derived indices used for management. We fit spatial and spatiotemporal models of ocean temperature and fish biomass density for 27 commercially important species using varying levels of spatial resolution. We evaluated both in-sample and out-of-sample prediction, and effects on area-weighted biomass indices. Counter to common assumptions, increasing spatial approximation resolution did not universally improve predictions. Our case studies demonstrate that for many datasets, out-of-sample prediction quality peaked at intermediate spatial resolutions and declined at the finest scales. Through simulation testing, we found this pattern was strongest when spatial patterning had a small range and high spatial variance, and observation error was low. For most species, spatial resolution had a minimal effect on biomass trend estimates used in management, but for several commercially important rockfish species, resolution choices substantially affected both the scale and uncertainty of population indices. Our findings demonstrate that spatial model specification can substantially affect ecological inference, with direct implications for management and conservation planning. We provide practical guidance for ecologists on selecting appropriate spatial complexity through cross-validation. When out-of-sample prediction is a focus, appropriate approximation complexity should improve both parameter estimation accuracy and derived quantities.

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Coral restoration alters reef soundscapes but machine learning and manual analyses suggest different recovery rates

Croasdale, E. M.; Saponari, L.; Dale, C.; Shah, N.; Williams, B.; Lamont, T. A. C.

2026-04-02 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.31.710564 medRxiv
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Coral restoration is recognised as a critical tool to mitigate pantropical degradation of reef ecosystems. Robust monitoring of restoration progress is crucial for projects to evaluate their success, improve practice, and share knowledge. However, traditional visual surveys often fail to capture the full impact of coral restoration on reef function. Therefore, we employed Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM) to assess whether the soundscape of a coral restoration site in the Seychelles differs from adjacent healthy and degraded reference reefs. We applied two methods of soundscape analysis: manual detection of unidentified fish sounds; and machine learning-based Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection analysis. Results were approach-specific: the manual approach highlighted similarities in fish calls between the restoration site and the healthy reference reef, while the machine learning approach extracted broader soundscape patterns, clustering the restoration site alongside the degraded reference reef. Although this is a single-site study, these findings suggest that a) coral restoration alters reef soundscapes, though recovery time may be taxon-specific, and b) multiple metrics are needed to bridge single-taxon and broad soundscape scales. This study contributes to the evolving field of soundscape ecology in coral reef ecosystems, highlighting the utility of PAM in monitoring changes to reef function through coral restoration.

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Patterns of host plant use by monarch butterflies revealed through annotation of more than 35,000 community science records

Freedman, M.

2026-04-08 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.06.716508 medRxiv
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Community science data are increasingly recognized as important resources for biodiversity research, in part because of the spatial and temporal resolution that they afford. While these data are useful for applications such as describing occurrence patterns, tracking movement of migratory animals, and recording phenological events, they can also be probed for "second-order" purposes, such as documenting species interactions. Here, I present a dataset of more than 35,000 annotated interactions between monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) larvae and their associated host plants from the community science platform iNaturalist. I document more than 70 unique species of milkweed hosts (Apocynaceae: Asclepiadoideae) used by monarch larvae, including a number of previously undocumented interactions. Monarchs show strong seasonal turnover in the species of host plants used across the migratory cycle, highlighting the importance of early season hosts like Asclepias viridis and A. asperula in eastern North America and A. californica and A. cordifolia in the west. I also demonstrate that non-native horticultural milkweed species have increased the spatial extent of monarch breeding during winter (November - February) by more than 60%, a pattern previously suggested from observational data but not formally quantified until now. To my knowledge, this represents the largest analysis to date of species interactions using unstructured community science data and highlights the value of platforms like iNaturalist for conducting fundamental research in ecology and conservation.

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Spatial and temporal habitat availability declines towards and beyond the geographic range limit of a coastal dune endemic

Gillies, G. J.; Dungey, M. P.; Eckert, C. G.

2026-04-02 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.30.715381 medRxiv
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O_LIChanges in habitat structure across species distributions may contribute to the generation and maintenance of range limits, but few studies have evaluated this by directly measuring habitat availability across relevant spatial scales. C_LIO_LIHere, we test the predictions that coarse-scale and patch-level habitat availability decline towards and beyond the northern range limit of Pacific coastal dune endemic Camissoniopsis cheiranthifolia. We used aerial imagery and geographic information system (GIS) tools to measure the coarse-scale availability of coastal dune habitat in California and Oregon. The availability of finer-scale habitat patches specifically suitable for C. cheiranthifolia was measured in a 2-generation field survey of > 4,200 5m x 5m plots randomly distributed across 1100 km of coastal dune habitat transcending the species northern range limit. At each plot, we estimated the proportion of area that contained suitable habitat as well as recorded occupancy by C. cheiranthifolia. As an alternative approach to visually estimating habitat suitability, we recorded plant community composition at each plot to predict beyond-range habitat suitability using a random forest model. C_LIO_LIContrary to our predictions, we found that coastal dune habitat, measured coarsely from aerial imagery, was more abundant and continuous towards and beyond the northern range limit. At the fine scale, however, the proportion of plots with suitable habitat (patch suitability) and the proportion of habitat within plots that was suitable (patch size) declined across the range limit. Moreover, patches were more isolated from one another and, in one survey year, less temporally stable towards and beyond the range limit. Finally, occupancy by C. cheiranthifolia was less likely in smaller, more isolated, and temporally unstable patches, providing mechanistic insight to the previously observed decline in occupancy towards the range limit. C_LIO_LISynthesis: Taken together, our results suggest that fine-scale habitat patch configuration changes in ways that likely impede patch colonization, thereby reducing occupancy and limiting the species northern distribution. Thus, consideration of geographic variation in patch and landscape structure, rather than only coarse-scale habitat availability, may be essential for understanding the processes that limit species ranges. C_LI

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Bed and breakfast in the bush: Selection of resting sites and kill sites by leopards (Panthera pardus) on Namibian farmland

Sabeder, N.; Oliveira, T.; Portas, R.; Hocevar, L.; Flezar, U.; Wachter, B.; Melzheimer, J.; Krofel, M.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.18.712594 medRxiv
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Sleeping and feeding are crucial for survival of any animal. In case of large predators, knowing where these activities occur can help us understand their behavioural adaptations for coexisting with people and could help mitigating human-carnivore conflicts. Leopard (Panthera pardus) is an elusive and highly adaptable large felid that mostly lives outside protected areas and can survive also in close proximity to humans. However, most leopard research in Africa has been conducted in protected areas and we poorly understand leopards habitat selection while resting and hunting. To shed light on their coexistence with humans, we investigated habitat features influencing leopard selection of resting and kill sites on farmlands in central Namibia, using generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) under a use-availability study design and blinded field-sampling. Leopards primarily selected resting sites that were located in mountainous, steep, rugged terrain and sites with good concealment while kill sites were selected in mountainous habitats. Human infrastructure did not affect leopard resting and kill site selection. Thus, the capacity of leopards to perform essential life-supporting behaviours while coexisting with people appears to be primarily driven by their ability to remain concealed, rather than spatially avoiding humans.